How Much Soybeans Does China Buy from Us in 2024?
Published: June 2, 2026
China remains one of the world’s largest importers of soybeans, with the United States serving as a key supplier. The question of how much soybeans does China buy from us in 2024 is central to understanding global agricultural trade dynamics, influenced by factors like tariffs, weather, and demand for animal feed and oil. This article breaks down the latest data, trends, and projections to provide a clear picture.
What Drives China’s Demand for US Soybeans?
China’s massive livestock industry fuels its soybean needs, as the crop is primarily crushed for meal to feed pigs, poultry, and other animals. With over 700 million pigs annually, demand exceeds domestic production. The US, with its vast soybean output from the Midwest, fills this gap efficiently due to competitive pricing and quality.
Trade tensions have fluctuated purchases, but agreements like the Phase One deal in 2020 aimed to boost US exports. In 2024, despite alternatives like Brazil, proximity and reliability keep the US relevant. Projections from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimate China’s total soybean imports at around 105 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2023/24 marketing year, with the US capturing a significant share.
How Much Soybeans Did China Buy from the US in Previous Years?
Historical data provides context for how much soybeans does China buy from us in 2024. In 2017, pre-trade war, China imported 32.9 MMT from the US, about one-third of its total. Tariffs in 2018 dropped this to 16.6 MMT in 2018/19, as China shifted to Brazil.
Recovery followed: 2020/21 saw 26.4 MMT, peaking at 28.3 MMT in 2021/22. Volumes dipped to 18.2 MMT in 2022/23 amid high prices and Brazilian competition but rebounded somewhat. These swings highlight how geopolitics and supply chains affect trade.
What Are the Current Figures for 2024 Soybean Exports to China?
As of mid-2024, US soybean exports to China for the 2023/24 marketing year (September 2023–August 2024) total approximately 18.5 MMT, according to USDA reports. This represents about 45% of total US soybean exports and 18% of China’s imports. Private exporters reported sales of over 1 million metric tons in single weeks during spring 2024, signaling strong demand.
Weekly USDA Export Sales data shows cumulative shipments nearing 20 MMT by September 2024 projections. Factors like favorable US harvest yields and Chinese restocking post-floods contributed. However, exact final numbers depend on the year’s close.
How Does 2024 Compare to USDA Projections?
Early 2024 USDA forecasts predicted 22 MMT for the year, later adjusted downward to 19.5 MMT due to ample South American supplies. Brazil, the top supplier, shipped over 70 MMT to China in 2023/24, dwarfing US volumes but underscoring diversification.
Despite this, the US holds steady at second place. If trends hold, how much soybeans does China buy from us in 2024 could settle around 20 MMT, a solid recovery from 2022 lows. Trackers like the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service provide monthly updates for precision.
What Factors Could Influence 2024 and Beyond?
Several variables impact how much soybeans does China buy from us in 2024. US production hit a record 4.27 billion bushels in 2023, supporting exports. Chinese policies, like reduced soybean meal in feed rations, temper demand, while African Swine Fever recovery boosts it.
Geopolitical risks, including potential tariff hikes or US election outcomes, add uncertainty. Weather events, such as US droughts or Brazilian floods, shift flows. Long-term, China’s push for self-sufficiency via GM soybean approvals may reduce imports overall.
Why Do These Numbers Matter for US Farmers and Economy?
Soybean exports to China generate billions in revenue, supporting over 300,000 US farm jobs. In 2023, ag exports hit $174 billion, with soybeans at 50% of oilseed value. States like Iowa and Illinois rely heavily on this trade, where a single percent shift in Chinese purchases affects prices significantly.
Price volatility ties to volumes: 2024 futures hovered around $11–$12 per bushel, buoyed by export pace. Diversifying markets to the EU or Southeast Asia mitigates risks but can’t fully replace China.
What Are Common Misconceptions About This Trade?
A frequent myth is that China has fully replaced US soybeans with Brazil. While Brazil dominates, US beans command premiums for protein content, preferred for premium feed. Another is ignoring processing: most imported soybeans are crushed in China, not resold.
Trade war narratives oversimplify; data shows resilience. Projections aren’t guarantees—actuals often vary by 10–20%.
Conclusion
In summary, how much soybeans does China buy from us in 2024 is approximately 19–20 MMT based on current data and projections, a vital artery in bilateral trade. Monitoring USDA reports and global events remains key for stakeholders. This trade exemplifies agriculture’s role in international relations, balancing supply, demand, and diplomacy.
People Also Ask
Who is the largest exporter of soybeans to China?
Brazil leads with over 70 MMT in recent years, followed by the US at around 20 MMT. Argentina and others fill smaller roles.
How much do soybeans cost per ton in 2024?
Global prices averaged $500–$550 per metric ton FOB US Gulf in 2024, influenced by supply gluts and freight costs.
Will China increase US soybean purchases in 2025?
Forecasts suggest stable or slight growth to 20–22 MMT, depending on trade policies and harvests, per USDA outlooks.